Forecasting and Preparations for the "Sleeping Giant" to Awaken

It is not only the uncertainty and fear of China's growing influence and power, but also the incredible opportunities that might lie ahead that has brought due attention the country known as the “sleeping giant” Many speculate China's economic boom will continue, thus learning Chinese has become a new craze not only for today's professionals to align themselves with lucrative employment and entrepreneurial opportunities, but also the younger generations to follow. Pre-emptive measures are being taken: South-Asian foreigners are flocking to China for immersion, posh New York socialites are hiring Chinese aupairs to train their future entrepreneurs, and last week Brighton College was first in Britain to make Chinese language compulsory in school curriculum. Whether or not this is a fad akin to the obsession with Russia during the Cold War is yet to be seen—it is all speculation. Regardless, the current craze will serve to open portals of understanding and cultural appreciation; this interaction is of value to all—including the Chinese.

As the mass of Chinese people awaken to the new opportunities within their own country and increase not only their interactions with the rest of the world, but also their interdependence, tolerance for the restrictions under the current regime may falter. Economic growth may be the impetus to much more: it may stimulate the people to demand both the social and political freedoms that should accompany economic girth. Moreover, the government's inadequancy to deal with gross inequity as well as the SARS and Avian Flu pandemics present more immediate challenges to its structure and policies. The Chinese people—with their renowned ingenuity, focus, and great spirit—will awaken, but China as we now know it may not be able to withstand the force of its empowered and enlightened masses.

Minxin Pei, senior associate and director of the China Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, has cast doubts not on China’s (until recently) untapped cultural, human, and economic potential, but rather the current regime’s ability to change and adapt to the growth stirring within:

“It may appear the Chinese Communist Party has never had it so good. Inside China, the party faces no serious challenges to its authority. Internationally, talk of China collapsing is out, and China rising is in. We are regularly told that globetrotting Chinese diplomats are running circles around their American and European counterparts…. [However] its chances of staying in power…are slim. Ultimately, the party may fall victim to its own economic miracle. The party’s unwillingness to establish the rule of law and refrain from economic meddling may yet slow the remarkable growth…. [And] if economic success does not end one-party rule in China, corruption probably will. Governments free from meaningful restraints on their power grow corrupt and rapacious. That is true of China today. Party discipline has broken down…. Autocracies that are expanding economically contain the seeds of their own destruction, mainly because they lack the institutional capacity and legitimacy to weather economic shocks [at a minimum]…. A party capable of reinvention and regeneration might be able to skirt these looming dangers. But, the Chinese Communist Party is growing arthritic…. One party regimes have no intrinsic incentive to reengineer themselves and little capacity to correct course.”
(Excerpt taken from “Here Today, Gone Tomorrow: The Chinese Communist Party,” Foreign Policy Magazine, September/October 2005)

Update [25.01.2006]: Check-out my pal Sean's 23.01.2006 blog entry on China and the Clash of Civilizations; he recommends a very interesting article/statement from leaders in China on Harmony in Diversity.